AI: The Future

CSED | Tanmay S. Redhu

When it comes to the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Automation, there is no debate that advances in these areas will engender profound changes in our world. Rather, the debate centres on what these changes might look like.

Robots flipping burgers and working in warehouses. Artificial intelligence handles insurance claims and basic bookkeeping, manages investment portfolios, does legal research, and performs basic HR tasks. Human labor doesn’t stand a chance against them—after the “automation apocalypse,” only those with spectacular abilities and the owners of the robots will thrive.

Or at least, that’s one plausible and completely valid theory. But in the long run, we will be fine.

What if I tell you that we have been here before. Many times. In 1500s when Queen Elizabeth I denied the patent for automated knitting contraption, in 1961 when President Kennedy said, “the major challenge of the sixties is to maintain full employment at a time when automation is replacing men.”, in 1980s when the advent of personal computers created “computer-phobia” with many fearing they’d be replaced by a computer.

So, what happened?

Despite these fears and concerns, every technological shift has ended up creating more jobs than were destroyed. When particular tasks are automated, becoming cheaper and faster, you need more human workers to do the other tasks in the process that haven’t been automated.

Looking back on history, it seems reasonable to conclude that fears and concerns regarding AI and automation are understandable but ultimately unwarranted. Technological change may eliminate certain jobs, but it has always created more in the process.

I am all for optimism but as much as I’d like to believe all of the above, this bright outlook on the future relies on shaky premises. Namely:

1.      The past is an accurate predictor of the future

2.       We can weather the painful transition

3.       There are some jobs that only humans can do

In the past, yes, more jobs were created than were destroyed by technology. Workers were able to reskill and move laterally into other industries instead. But the past isn’t always an accurate predictor of the future.

For a second, let’s pretend that the past actually will be a good predictor of the future; jobs will be eliminated but more jobs will be created to replace them. This brings up an absolutely critical question, what kinds of jobs are being created and what kinds of jobs are being destroyed?

The answer may come as a surprise. But every job in all kinds of fields is at risk of being bulldozed by AI and automation. How? Let’s take a low-level job like assembling smart phones. It requires human hands with precision that no machine can match. But as machines with precision close to human hand become more and more accessible and software to run them enters the mainstream market, it’ll be senseless to hire workers instead of using their cost-effective alternative - machines.

Clerical jobs which require mid-tier skills are the most susceptible to AI because these do not require any heavy machinery.

Software can replace man.

Design work like product design, system architecture design, building design, market analysis and investment portfolio handling can be easily replaced by AI. But there is a saturation point to which the software can be developed. The AI can create a self-sufficient environment where it learns on the job.

In my opinion, we have a dystopian future ahead. A future where people won’t be needed to create AI itself. A future where AI will create new AI to match the job specifications;

Rendering humans obsolete.